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August 2010
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Welcome to Draftologist.com. We’ll begin the foray into real fantasy football drafting analysis by setting the baseline for QB ADP.

First- a quick primer on ‘ADP’ and what it really represents. ADP is an acronym for ‘average draft position’. Any statistician will tell you that ADP is statistically invalid, since ranks should not be averaged- they would argue that you use a median value. No matter- they do work in this context since we get an idea of the market valuation of a given NFL Player from his ADP position.

ADP sets the market; let’s take a look at the top 24 QB, as listed at FFToolbox.com today:

Rank Player Pos Team Age Yrs Exp Avg ADP
1 Aaron Rodgers QB GB 26 5 10.13
2 Drew Brees QB NO 31 9 12.83
3 Peyton Manning QB IND 34 12 21.07
4 Tom Brady QB NE 33 9 35.32
5 Tony Romo QB DAL 30 6 37.11
6 Philip Rivers QB SD 28 6 40.78
7 Matt Schaub QB HOU 29 6 43.23
8 Jay Cutler QB CHI 27 4 69.04
9 Kevin Kolb QB PHI 25 3 73.67
10 Matt Ryan QB ATL 25 2 79.57
11 Joe Flacco QB BAL 25 2 87.35
12 Eli Manning QB NYG 29 6 90.01
13 Brett Favre QB MIN 40 19 102.67
14 Donovan McNabb QB WAS 34 11 104.4
15 Carson Palmer QB CIN 30 7 108.12
16 Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT 28 6 116.84
17 Matthew Stafford QB DET 22 1 120.71
18 Chad Henne QB MIA 25 2 128.29
19 Vince Young QB TEN 27 4 170.45
20 Matt Cassel QB KC 28 5 202.47
21 Alex Smith QB SF 26 5 208.73
22 Mark Sanchez QB NYJ 23 1 215.32
23 Matt Leinart QB ARI 27 4 230.43
24 Sam Bradford QB STL 22 R 232.62

From my experience, I’ve found that it is exceedingly rare for a QB younger than 24 to finish in the top 12, and no rookies at all have done it in the past dozen years or so. Further, you want to try to get an QB aged between 25-30 and entering between his 2nd and 8th year. Why? Annually, you can expect to see between 8-9 of the top 12 QBs in this group. Would you rather try to find one of those guys, or try to pick the 3 or 4 guys that fall out of that group?

With this in mind, let’s examine the current market to see if they fit the profile. Rodgers, Romo, Rivers, Schaub, Cutler, Kolb, Ryan, Flacco and Eli Manning all fit the bill- that’s 9. The other three- Brees, Peyton Manning & Brady sound about right. The market fits what I’d expect- but how do we know if those are really the right guys to spend a high pick on? We’ll examine that in the next post.

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