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Archive for February, 2013

Last year we took a look at the expected odds of any given combination of numbers in the ubiquitous squares game played by billions this time of year… ok, maybe it’s only millions but there are certainly billions of squares in play. We looked at the score of the first three quarters of every championship game, as well as the final score.

When you pick a square before the numbers are drawn, it has a default 1/100, or 1%, chance of winning. Once you draw the numbers, only 26 squares will provide a better than 1% chance of winning, based on historical results from the last game of the NFL’s season.

The most common combination to hit is 0-0, which happens 7.4% of the time- meaning you have a 7.4% chance of winning with that combination. You may as well give it up if you get a 2-8 (or 8-2) or 2-2, each of which should only happen .05% of the time. That’s 5 times out of 1,000. Not very likely. At all.

Your next best combo is 0-7 (or 7-0), at 5.95%.

So, here is a table detailing the historical odds of all possible combinations. Good luck and enjoy the Big Game in the Big Easy!

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Total % 27.20% 5.60% 2.13% 15.47% 10.13% 2.67% 8.00% 21.87% 2.40% 4.53%
0 27.20% 7.40% 1.52% 0.58% 4.21% 2.76% 0.73% 2.18% 5.95% 0.65% 1.23%
1 5.60% 1.52% 0.31% 0.12% 0.87% 0.57% 0.15% 0.45% 1.22% 0.13% 0.25%
2 2.13% 0.58% 0.12% 0.05% 0.33% 0.22% 0.06% 0.17% 0.47% 0.05% 0.10%
3 15.47% 4.21% 0.87% 0.33% 2.39% 1.57% 0.41% 1.24% 3.38% 0.37% 0.70%
4 10.13% 2.76% 0.57% 0.22% 1.57% 1.03% 0.27% 0.81% 2.22% 0.24% 0.46%
5 2.67% 0.73% 0.15% 0.06% 0.41% 0.27% 0.07% 0.21% 0.58% 0.06% 0.12%
6 8.00% 2.18% 0.45% 0.17% 1.24% 0.81% 0.21% 0.64% 1.75% 0.19% 0.36%
7 21.87% 5.95% 1.22% 0.47% 3.38% 2.22% 0.58% 1.75% 4.78% 0.52% 0.99%
8 2.40% 0.65% 0.13% 0.05% 0.37% 0.24% 0.06% 0.19% 0.52% 0.06% 0.11%
9 4.53% 1.23% 0.25% 0.10% 0.70% 0.46% 0.12% 0.36% 0.99% 0.11% 0.21%
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