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I recently saw a list lauding the most accurate fantasy football prognosticators from 2011. The most accurate experts less than 65% in their preseason forecast- amazing, but also a bit scary in that you are often relying on these experts to get you through your draft.

I think anyone worth his salt in predicting fantasy football seasons certainly considers the changes from last season. The best way to begin a forecast is look at what the NFL teams did last year, then look at what changed in the off-season to forecast what happens this year. In other words, start at the team level, and work down to the player level. For example, say a team’s offense had 50 total touchdowns and 5000 total yards. It gave up 10 sacks, and there were 300 completions/receptions. You can then start breaking this down.. 3500 yards through the air, 1500 on the ground, 30 passing/receiving TDs, 20 rushing TDs, etc. Then what each player got, and on down.

So, last year’s numbers can become your baseline in predicting this year, but you need to know what changed. I’ve identified 8 simple factors you should consider when evaluating projections, or even creating your own. Was there significant changes in the offensive line (two or more new starters, or the LT or C changed)? At the offensive skill positions? Did the head coach or offensive coordinator change? How about the DC? (Note: assuming non-idp leagues). Method was simple- were there significant changes in these factors? The table below summarizes how many risk factors you need to consider for each team. Note that I’m not quantifying whether the changes were good or bad- simply that there was change, and that teams players may be tougher to predict for this season. A 1 means significant changes, a zero means minor or no changes.

TEAM OL HC OC DC QB WR RB TE Changes
IND 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 7
MIA 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 6
TB 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 6
DEN 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 5
JAC 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 5
KC 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 5
OAK 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 5
SD 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 5
STL 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 5
MIN 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 4
NE 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 4
NO 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 4
SEA 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 4
ARI 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 3
ATL 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 3
CHI 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 3
CIN 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 3
CLE 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 3
PIT 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 3
BUF 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2
CAR 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2
DAL 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2
GB 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2
HOU 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2
NYJ 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 2
SF 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 2
TEN 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 2
WAS 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 2
BAL 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
DET 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
NYG 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
PHI 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

One Response to “2012 Change Summary”