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Phase I of the Draftologist 3P method- PREPARE.

Introduction: What can your past fantasy football drafts can tell you about this year? You’d be surprised.

I had a drafting epiphany in 2004. Perhaps some of you smarter players out there figured this out well before me, which explains why my drafts, at times, were just terrible. I prescribed to the Value-Based-Draft (VBD) method, I dutifully watched Average Draft Position (ADP) lists, but these just didn’t help me zero in on exactly what to expect in my league.

I started studying my previous year’s drafts. I opened a spreadsheet, entered the drafts for the previous three years, and counted up how many of each position went in each round. I was trying to figure out what baselines to use in my league- I wanted see what trends were revealed that could tell me when to expect position runs and how deep into the rankings at each position I’d have to look to figure out what players would be available at my pick.

What I found floored me. My league was unexpectedly predictable. Patterns emerged that essentially tipped off every move my league would make, and since I looked at the last three years, I saw the year to year trends. One year, 11 running backs and 1 QB went in the first round. The next year, 10 RB, 1 QB, 1 WR. I could see where the first TE usually went. When the first defensive players went. when the last starter at a given position went.. etc.

What I had was a reference point. What I had was the ability to anticipate runs. I had a logical way to establish baselines. I could evaluate each and every owner’s strategies (some were consistent from year to year, some not). I could see who was predictable and who was a wild card. I could look at how people handled the different draft slots year to year.

As I said, it was an epiphany like no other. I actually had an article published about it on Footballguys.com in 2007, and I’ll embellish on the concepts I shared there here at Draftologist.com. I’ll share my draft analysis methods in detail with you and I developed the Draft Planalyzer spreadsheet that is offered under resources for FREE.

In a nutshell, it goes like this. You take your last three drafts, load them in a spreadsheet, work some computational magic, and you can then get to see all of these wonderful patterns and useful information customized for your league. You can use this information to establish those critical VBD baselines. You can see when you have to pull the trigger on a position to get a top-ranked player. And, when you match up this data with the going ADP, you can even make some assumptions on who will actually be there when it is your time to pick. Back to Draft Strategy.

 

 

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