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A look at Jameis Winston’s NFL prospects next season from guest contributor Mike Scully.

Going into the 2014 season, no player in college football was going to be
analyzed more than Jameis Winston. After all, he was able to win a national
championship with Florida State and win the Heisman Trophy individually
in 2013. The Seminoles have been able to stay undefeated up to this point,
but NFL scouts are starting to question just how good he can be at the next
level.

As of right now, nobody knows for sure if Winston will be in the NFL next
season or not. There is actually a chance that we do not see him in the NFL
for a while if he truly decides to stay in college until he graduates like he has
stated in the past. With that being said, at some point he is going to get the
opportunity to be a NFL quarterback. His decision-making this year has
been pretty shaky for the most part, and that is the number 1 reason why
NFL scouts are starting to wonder just how much success he can have in
fantasy football.

Winston might not be the most athletic quarterback in the world, but he can
make some plays with his legs. In order to have success in the NFL, he will
need to rely a little bit more on his arm. Statistically, he is not really getting
things done with 17 interceptions in the 11 games Florida State has played
so far this year. Sure, he has taken a few risks in games to try and force the
issue, but he simply won’t get away with that at the highest level.

There is also of course the case of Winston off of the field. He has been in
and out of the headlines for various reasons. The most notable is of course
the allegation of sexual assault, but no one really knows for sure what
happened that night other than the 2 who were actually there. As for things
we do know about, he has just not acting maturely as a student athlete at
Florida State. He has 1st round and even number 1 overall talent, but that
doesn’t always mean he’s going to succeed.

Winston has a chance to play two marquee games in the next few weeks,
and that will be more telling than anything about where he stands. So far, it
has been a pretty mediocre season individually for the reigning Heisman
Trophy winner compared to the lofty standards he set for himself last season.

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As promised, a special article on how I use Draft Planalyzer to set up Footballguys.com’s Draft Dominator.

Check it out here.

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The key to a successful fantasy football draft strategy in 2013, like any year, is preparation.

There is no way around that. You’ll find a multitude of sites and publications offering advice and guidance on draft strategies, methods, projections and gamesmanship. None of them, though, can help you narrow down the way your league drafts. That’s a key part of draftology- understanding your league’s draft habits.

I’ve developed a spreadsheet-based tool to assist us in organizing and analyzing the data from up to three years of past drafts in our redraft leagues. We call it the Draftologist.com Draft Planalyzer, and it is available under resources above. As part of our 3P draft strategy, we tackle the first ‘P’- preparation, in an article that shows you how to set up the Planalyzer. Organization is the key to proper preparation, and we show you how to organize your draft data, which allows us to turn it into valuable information.

Download the Planalyzer, get your last three drafts, and follow along here.

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Quick update for tonight- created a quick and dirty way to see how many significant changes each team went through this offseason. This is important because the more changes, the more unpredictable a team is when creating projections. You have to deal with uncertainty and make assumptions when creating projections, but make them informed ones. Check it out under Articles above, or jump straight from here.

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With the lockout apparently ending soon, its time to ramp up things around here. The Draft Analyzer Workbook is what you need to easily examine your league’s historical draft patterns and habits. Learn how to use it with our in-depth guide. And stay tuned to this blog as I’ll be delving into other simple strategies to reduce your risk of those killer early round busts! We’ll really being going gang-busters in August, but the DAW is the foundation of what we offer here, and I think it alone will help anyone who wants a leg up on the competition in their league!

Now, let’s get that CBA done and get back on the gridiron!

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Part III: Plan-alyze- The DAW Dashboard

Now that we’ve organized our data from our last three drafts, we enter the second phase of the process and we take a look at what the Draft Analyzer Workbook (DAW) tells us about your league’s draft habits. I’ll continue to refer to the default version of the DAW available here. Note that the DAW is preloaded with ADP information adapted from MyFantasyLeague.com.

The Dashboard of the DAW tells you three key bits of information that will help you formulate a solid strategy. The first tells you how many picks are spent per position in your league annually, then gives you a weighted average so you know what you can reasonably expect as you plan for this year. The DAW also breaks down by round how many picks go to a given position based on your weighting of each of the past year’s drafts.

The most important thing on the page, in my opinion, gives you tiers and baselines of exactly when a certain number of players goes, again based on your per-year weights. So, say you’re interested in when the twelfth QB goes, or when the first kicker is taken, or when the 24th RB is gone. This is priceless info to have when you try to tier your player rankings, set baselines, and formulate your strategy. Check it all out here.

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