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One Big Idea. Many endeavors have launched because of a single idea, born of a nagging need.

I didn’t draft well prior to 2004. I tried to subscribe to VBD, thought I knew how to use ADP, figured I understood how the scoring system affected player values. But, like so many still do, I ignored the previous years’ drafts and their gold mine of information, much to my chagrin. Then, as I struggled with the concepts of baselines and trying to get a better idea of how my league drafted differently that generic ADP indicated, I started very simply by tallying up how many of each position went in each round. Then I did it for a couple more years back.

I saw the patterns- the draft did not change much from round to round, year to year. Better yet, since I always knew what slot I would be drafting from, I could get an idea, based on history, how many of each position would be drafted at a given slot in the draft in a given round. This became the core of what is now the Draft Planalyzer. Read on to learn how to use the Planalyzer Draft List for your league, right here.

Headsup- tomorrow, at long last, we cover the brand new Baseliner feature!

 

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The human mind seeks patterns to find context and make sense of the world around us. This certainly applies to analyzing your past drafts to plan for this year.

Now that we’ve prepared our data for analysis, its time to move on to the second ‘P’ of our 3P Draft Strategy- Planning and Analysis. Planalyze, as we call it here on Draftologist.com.

We begin ‘planalyzing’ in Part III of our series, examining the Dashboard tab of the free Draft Planalyzer (available under resources), which sheds light on the first discernible patterns in your league’s draft habits. Check it out right here.

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The key to a successful fantasy football draft strategy in 2013, like any year, is preparation.

There is no way around that. You’ll find a multitude of sites and publications offering advice and guidance on draft strategies, methods, projections and gamesmanship. None of them, though, can help you narrow down the way your league drafts. That’s a key part of draftology- understanding your league’s draft habits.

I’ve developed a spreadsheet-based tool to assist us in organizing and analyzing the data from up to three years of past drafts in our redraft leagues. We call it the Draftologist.com Draft Planalyzer, and it is available under resources above. As part of our 3P draft strategy, we tackle the first ‘P’- preparation, in an article that shows you how to set up the Planalyzer. Organization is the key to proper preparation, and we show you how to organize your draft data, which allows us to turn it into valuable information.

Download the Planalyzer, get your last three drafts, and follow along here.

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Run a search on Google for “fantasy football draft strategy” and you’ll get over 4.5 million hits.

Question: How many of those links can give you specific information about your redraft league’s tendencies on draft day?

Answer: None. Zip. Zero. There is only one place to get that information, and that is from your past years’ draft results. Still got ‘em? Good. Beginning this weekend, the Draftologist will walk you through preparing, planning and perfecting your draft strategy- the 3P Draft Strategy.

We’ll leverage the Draft Planalyzer, available here for free. And, new this year, we’ll delve into generating sensible baselines and even a custom ADP list that you can use to own your draft.

Redraft leagues have three seasons: Draft, regular and playoff. Maximize your chances of  joining the playoff fun in *your* league and stay tuned this week. You can start, right now, by reading our Introduction.

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Last year we took a look at the expected odds of any given combination of numbers in the ubiquitous squares game played by billions this time of year… ok, maybe it’s only millions but there are certainly billions of squares in play. We looked at the score of the first three quarters of every championship game, as well as the final score.

When you pick a square before the numbers are drawn, it has a default 1/100, or 1%, chance of winning. Once you draw the numbers, only 26 squares will provide a better than 1% chance of winning, based on historical results from the last game of the NFL’s season.

The most common combination to hit is 0-0, which happens 7.4% of the time- meaning you have a 7.4% chance of winning with that combination. You may as well give it up if you get a 2-8 (or 8-2) or 2-2, each of which should only happen .05% of the time. That’s 5 times out of 1,000. Not very likely. At all.

Your next best combo is 0-7 (or 7-0), at 5.95%.

So, here is a table detailing the historical odds of all possible combinations. Good luck and enjoy the Big Game in the Big Easy!

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Total % 27.20% 5.60% 2.13% 15.47% 10.13% 2.67% 8.00% 21.87% 2.40% 4.53%
0 27.20% 7.40% 1.52% 0.58% 4.21% 2.76% 0.73% 2.18% 5.95% 0.65% 1.23%
1 5.60% 1.52% 0.31% 0.12% 0.87% 0.57% 0.15% 0.45% 1.22% 0.13% 0.25%
2 2.13% 0.58% 0.12% 0.05% 0.33% 0.22% 0.06% 0.17% 0.47% 0.05% 0.10%
3 15.47% 4.21% 0.87% 0.33% 2.39% 1.57% 0.41% 1.24% 3.38% 0.37% 0.70%
4 10.13% 2.76% 0.57% 0.22% 1.57% 1.03% 0.27% 0.81% 2.22% 0.24% 0.46%
5 2.67% 0.73% 0.15% 0.06% 0.41% 0.27% 0.07% 0.21% 0.58% 0.06% 0.12%
6 8.00% 2.18% 0.45% 0.17% 1.24% 0.81% 0.21% 0.64% 1.75% 0.19% 0.36%
7 21.87% 5.95% 1.22% 0.47% 3.38% 2.22% 0.58% 1.75% 4.78% 0.52% 0.99%
8 2.40% 0.65% 0.13% 0.05% 0.37% 0.24% 0.06% 0.19% 0.52% 0.06% 0.11%
9 4.53% 1.23% 0.25% 0.10% 0.70% 0.46% 0.12% 0.36% 0.99% 0.11% 0.21%
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Fantasy Football is in essence a social network. Its a hobby you can share with others in a variety of fun ways. Check out some of the ways we punch up the fun in our leagues here or under articles above.

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