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Posts Tagged ‘ADP’

A few years back I did a study on the Running Back Rule of Thumb (stay away from RBs when they hit 30) that was published on Footballguys.com. My base conclusion was that out of the top 24 running-backs in any given year, you can expect between 20-21 to fall between the ages of 23-30 and having 6 or fewer years of experience; between 12-13 are aged 24-27 with 2-6 years of experience.

Let’s examine the current ADP for RBs from FFToolbox.com:

Rank Player Team Age Yrs Exp Avg ADP
1 Chris Johnson TEN 24 2 1.23
2 Adrian Peterson MIN 25 3 2.11
3 Ray Rice BAL 23 2 3.77
4 Maurice Jones-Drew JAX 25 4 3.42
5 Frank Gore SF 27 5 6.25
6 Steven Jackson STL 27 6 10.04
7 Michael Turner ATL 28 6 9.86
8 Rashard Mendenhall PIT 23 2 13.52
9 DeAngelo Williams CAR 27 4 17.19
10 Jamaal Charles KC 23 2 24.51
11 Ryan Mathews SD 23 R 21.05
12 Shonn Greene NYJ 24 1 20.58
13 Ryan Grant GB 27 4 26.37
14 Chris Wells ARI 22 1 29.7
15 Knowshon Moreno DEN 23 1 34.63
16 LeSean McCoy PHI 22 1 35.57
17 Jonathan Stewart CAR 23 2 34.83
18 Pierre Thomas NO 25 3 33.83
19 Cedric Benson CIN 27 5 30.03
20 Matt Forte CHI 24 2 45.4
21 Jahvid Best DET 21 R 44.07
22 Joseph Addai IND 27 4 49.68
23 Felix Jones DAL 23 2 47.79
24 Ronnie Brown MIA 28 5 54.52

‘Sweet Spot’ RBs on the list include C. Johnson, Adrian Peterson, MJD, Gore,  Williams,  Greene, Grant,  Thomas, Benson, Forte & Addai. That’s 11- close to what I’d expect to see. Jackson and Turner are entering their 7th campaign and are thus a little more risky now. And note there are no 29 or 30 year-olds- the market appears to be afraid of older RBs!

Tomorrow we’ll apply equalized value to the list, weed out the less predictable situations, and recommend the RBs to build your team around.

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Welcome to Draftologist.com. We’ll begin the foray into real fantasy football drafting analysis by setting the baseline for QB ADP.

First- a quick primer on ‘ADP’ and what it really represents. ADP is an acronym for ‘average draft position’. Any statistician will tell you that ADP is statistically invalid, since ranks should not be averaged- they would argue that you use a median value. No matter- they do work in this context since we get an idea of the market valuation of a given NFL Player from his ADP position.

ADP sets the market; let’s take a look at the top 24 QB, as listed at FFToolbox.com today:

Rank Player Pos Team Age Yrs Exp Avg ADP
1 Aaron Rodgers QB GB 26 5 10.13
2 Drew Brees QB NO 31 9 12.83
3 Peyton Manning QB IND 34 12 21.07
4 Tom Brady QB NE 33 9 35.32
5 Tony Romo QB DAL 30 6 37.11
6 Philip Rivers QB SD 28 6 40.78
7 Matt Schaub QB HOU 29 6 43.23
8 Jay Cutler QB CHI 27 4 69.04
9 Kevin Kolb QB PHI 25 3 73.67
10 Matt Ryan QB ATL 25 2 79.57
11 Joe Flacco QB BAL 25 2 87.35
12 Eli Manning QB NYG 29 6 90.01
13 Brett Favre QB MIN 40 19 102.67
14 Donovan McNabb QB WAS 34 11 104.4
15 Carson Palmer QB CIN 30 7 108.12
16 Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT 28 6 116.84
17 Matthew Stafford QB DET 22 1 120.71
18 Chad Henne QB MIA 25 2 128.29
19 Vince Young QB TEN 27 4 170.45
20 Matt Cassel QB KC 28 5 202.47
21 Alex Smith QB SF 26 5 208.73
22 Mark Sanchez QB NYJ 23 1 215.32
23 Matt Leinart QB ARI 27 4 230.43
24 Sam Bradford QB STL 22 R 232.62

From my experience, I’ve found that it is exceedingly rare for a QB younger than 24 to finish in the top 12, and no rookies at all have done it in the past dozen years or so. Further, you want to try to get an QB aged between 25-30 and entering between his 2nd and 8th year. Why? Annually, you can expect to see between 8-9 of the top 12 QBs in this group. Would you rather try to find one of those guys, or try to pick the 3 or 4 guys that fall out of that group?

With this in mind, let’s examine the current market to see if they fit the profile. Rodgers, Romo, Rivers, Schaub, Cutler, Kolb, Ryan, Flacco and Eli Manning all fit the bill- that’s 9. The other three- Brees, Peyton Manning & Brady sound about right. The market fits what I’d expect- but how do we know if those are really the right guys to spend a high pick on? We’ll examine that in the next post.

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