Posts Tagged ‘RB’
A few years back I did a study on the Running Back Rule of Thumb (stay away from RBs when they hit 30) that was published on Footballguys.com. My base conclusion was that out of the top 24 running-backs in any given year, you can expect between 20-21 to fall between the ages of 23-30 and having 6 or fewer years of experience; between 12-13 are aged 24-27 with 2-6 years of experience.
Let’s examine the current ADP for RBs from FFToolbox.com:
| Rank | Player | Team | Age | Yrs Exp | Avg ADP |
| 1 | Chris Johnson | TEN | 24 | 2 | 1.23 |
| 2 | Adrian Peterson | MIN | 25 | 3 | 2.11 |
| 3 | Ray Rice | BAL | 23 | 2 | 3.77 |
| 4 | Maurice Jones-Drew | JAX | 25 | 4 | 3.42 |
| 5 | Frank Gore | SF | 27 | 5 | 6.25 |
| 6 | Steven Jackson | STL | 27 | 6 | 10.04 |
| 7 | Michael Turner | ATL | 28 | 6 | 9.86 |
| 8 | Rashard Mendenhall | PIT | 23 | 2 | 13.52 |
| 9 | DeAngelo Williams | CAR | 27 | 4 | 17.19 |
| 10 | Jamaal Charles | KC | 23 | 2 | 24.51 |
| 11 | Ryan Mathews | SD | 23 | R | 21.05 |
| 12 | Shonn Greene | NYJ | 24 | 1 | 20.58 |
| 13 | Ryan Grant | GB | 27 | 4 | 26.37 |
| 14 | Chris Wells | ARI | 22 | 1 | 29.7 |
| 15 | Knowshon Moreno | DEN | 23 | 1 | 34.63 |
| 16 | LeSean McCoy | PHI | 22 | 1 | 35.57 |
| 17 | Jonathan Stewart | CAR | 23 | 2 | 34.83 |
| 18 | Pierre Thomas | NO | 25 | 3 | 33.83 |
| 19 | Cedric Benson | CIN | 27 | 5 | 30.03 |
| 20 | Matt Forte | CHI | 24 | 2 | 45.4 |
| 21 | Jahvid Best | DET | 21 | R | 44.07 |
| 22 | Joseph Addai | IND | 27 | 4 | 49.68 |
| 23 | Felix Jones | DAL | 23 | 2 | 47.79 |
| 24 | Ronnie Brown | MIA | 28 | 5 | 54.52 |
‘Sweet Spot’ RBs on the list include C. Johnson, Adrian Peterson, MJD, Gore, Williams, Greene, Grant, Thomas, Benson, Forte & Addai. That’s 11- close to what I’d expect to see. Jackson and Turner are entering their 7th campaign and are thus a little more risky now. And note there are no 29 or 30 year-olds- the market appears to be afraid of older RBs!
Tomorrow we’ll apply equalized value to the list, weed out the less predictable situations, and recommend the RBs to build your team around.
by 