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Posts Tagged ‘RB’

A few years back I did a study on the Running Back Rule of Thumb (stay away from RBs when they hit 30) that was published on Footballguys.com. My base conclusion was that out of the top 24 running-backs in any given year, you can expect between 20-21 to fall between the ages of 23-30 and having 6 or fewer years of experience; between 12-13 are aged 24-27 with 2-6 years of experience.

Let’s examine the current ADP for RBs from FFToolbox.com:

Rank Player Team Age Yrs Exp Avg ADP
1 Chris Johnson TEN 24 2 1.23
2 Adrian Peterson MIN 25 3 2.11
3 Ray Rice BAL 23 2 3.77
4 Maurice Jones-Drew JAX 25 4 3.42
5 Frank Gore SF 27 5 6.25
6 Steven Jackson STL 27 6 10.04
7 Michael Turner ATL 28 6 9.86
8 Rashard Mendenhall PIT 23 2 13.52
9 DeAngelo Williams CAR 27 4 17.19
10 Jamaal Charles KC 23 2 24.51
11 Ryan Mathews SD 23 R 21.05
12 Shonn Greene NYJ 24 1 20.58
13 Ryan Grant GB 27 4 26.37
14 Chris Wells ARI 22 1 29.7
15 Knowshon Moreno DEN 23 1 34.63
16 LeSean McCoy PHI 22 1 35.57
17 Jonathan Stewart CAR 23 2 34.83
18 Pierre Thomas NO 25 3 33.83
19 Cedric Benson CIN 27 5 30.03
20 Matt Forte CHI 24 2 45.4
21 Jahvid Best DET 21 R 44.07
22 Joseph Addai IND 27 4 49.68
23 Felix Jones DAL 23 2 47.79
24 Ronnie Brown MIA 28 5 54.52

‘Sweet Spot’ RBs on the list include C. Johnson, Adrian Peterson, MJD, Gore,  Williams,  Greene, Grant,  Thomas, Benson, Forte & Addai. That’s 11- close to what I’d expect to see. Jackson and Turner are entering their 7th campaign and are thus a little more risky now. And note there are no 29 or 30 year-olds- the market appears to be afraid of older RBs!

Tomorrow we’ll apply equalized value to the list, weed out the less predictable situations, and recommend the RBs to build your team around.

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