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Posts Tagged ‘Strategy’

Draftologist.com is pleased to kick off the 2014 fantasy football draft season with some sound strategy advice from guest contributor Jess Tarling.

Fantasy Football Drafting Advice

If you are a NFL fan, it seems like the fall can’t get here soon enough. It is always tough to get through the summer months, but most people who play fantasy football tend to look at projections and ratings heading into the fall to pass the time. Having the right draft strategy in fantasy football can make a huge difference. Here are a few tips to work on between now and draft day.

Fantasy Playoff Weeks Are Huge

As long as you are one of the top teams in your regular season, it all comes down to the playoffs. That is why it is extremely important to take note of who your top players go up against to end the regular season. Scheduling is always going to be imbalanced in some way, and a top quarterback could be facing difficult defenses to end the regular season. You want the most favorable matchups possible when the season is on the line.

Avoid Rookie Quarterbacks

The 2014 NFL draft class had a few intriguing quarterbacks taken early on, but none of them are nearly ready to compete on a weekly basis and put up huge numbers in fantasy football. For starters, guys like Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel and Teddy Bridgewater are not on very good teams. Secondly, they are not nearly on the same level as other rookies who have had success from the very beginning such as Andrew Luck and Cam Newton.

Running Back Comes Down To Depth

In an era with very few featured running backs left, it is more important to have depth on your roster. After all, it is perhaps the most important position in fantasy football. Injuries are also fairly common, so having depth can help soften the blow if your 1st or 2nd round player goes down with an injury and has to miss a few games.

Tight Ends Matter

Just like the NFL is changing with how they handle running backs, the league as a whole seems to be throwing the football to the tight end on a consistent basis. In fact, that position in a way is turning into a receiver for the passing game. Not every tight end is going to be as productive as Jimmy Graham, but make sure you get a good one earlier than normal.

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Draftologist.com proudly presents the Fantasy Football Draft Analyzer Workbook!

As promised, here’s version one of this year’s workbook. This Excel file is preloaded with draft information adapted from the excellent MyFantasyLeague.com ADP tools, so kudos to them for making that freely available to us Fantasy Football fanatics.

As I continue on with my series on the 3P’s of draft strategy, I will be using the DAW to provide examples on how you can use it to help prepare, plan and perfect your draft this year. Download, take a look, play around with it. I don’t claim to be a spreadsheet guru, and it isn’t the prettiest spreadsheet you’ll see; I offer it as is, with warts and all (but I do plan to constantly polish and expand it (with hopes to create a real app some day).

I’ll work on some documentation soon, but essentially you can follow the prompts on the ‘Input’ tab and then take a look at the subsequent worksheets which breakdown your past drafts into digestable chunks. Features include:

  • Filterable Lists: Show what your league’s typical pick depth is at draft slot 5, etc.
  • Process up to 320 draft picks in straight or serpentine order, up to 25 rounds.
  • Up to 12 different player positions- customizable to your league’s positions
  • Up to 16 teams/owners
  • Automatically generated tables and charts with no macros necessary.
  • Ability to enter up to your past three years of drafts, and weight them for computing averages.
  • Works in Excel 2003 and up; Google Docs; and should work with any Excel-compatible spreadsheet program (OpenOffice, etc).

The wait is over- check it out: FFDAW_1102_P More info to follow!

Notes: The Workbook does have protection turned on to prevent you from overwriting something important, but only the About sheet is password-protected (for what that’s worth). Also, you do (at least in Excel 2003, which is what the Workbook was mostly created in) need to have the Analysis Toolpack Add-In enabled (Tools->Add-Ins->). Drop me a line if you run into any issues or have any questions or suggestions.

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Introduction: What can your past fantasy football drafts can tell you about this year? You’d be surprised.

I had a drafting epiphany in 2004. Perhaps some of you smarter players out there figured this out well before me, which explains why my drafts, at times, were just terrible. I prescribed to the Value-Based-Draft (VBD) method, I dutifully watched Average Draft Position (ADP) lists, but these just didn’t help me zero in on exactly what to expect in my league.

I started studying my previous year’s drafts. I opened a spreadsheet, entered the drafts for the previous three years, and counted up how many of each position went in each round. What I found floored me.

My league was unexpectedly predictable. Patterns emerged that essentially tipped off every move my league would make each round. Check out the Draftologist 3P draft strategy series under Resources above. Come back every couple of days to learn more.

 

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It’s time to start winning your fantasy football league. Right now, while the schleps are watching those other three sports.

It’s time to Prepare, Plan and Perfect your 2011 fantasy football draft. And the Draftologist is here to help. Over the next couple of months, I will show you how to prepare for a solid draft. How to glean information from those old drafts (your last three years, preferably). I’m going to show you how to organize that data- heck, I’m even going to give you access to free, preformatted spreadsheets to help. Then we’ll see what that data tells us about your leagues.

Then we’re going to plan your draft- how to turn your data into useful information that can help you predict what will happen in your league’s draft; you are going to have a customized ADP listing for your league. We’ll talk about evaluating players and minimizing risks, especially with those precious high draft picks.

Finally, we’re going to perfect your draft strategy by coming up with realistic and meaningful baselines for your league, ways to evaluate player projections (or even a method to create your own). We’ll talk about how to actually build a strategy, how to get organized, and how to stay organized on draft day. We’ll also keep a running dialogue in the ADP listings- what players are moving up and down (ADP determines market value- you must pay attention to it to succeed).

Along the way, I’ll sprinkle in some Draftologist goodies, such as a cool way for you to run your post-season in a three division, 12-team league (think something like collegiate Bowl Games); I’ll share my favorite scoring system; I’ll give my three cents on the various sites I use during the season; and post whatever other thoughts strike my fancy.

Homework: My system is intended to help those of you who play in an established league, not a random public league. If you’re still on board, then you need to gather your past three draft listings, in the order that the players were picked. We’re interested in positions- not player names. So you want something like #1 RB, #2 RB, #3 QB, etc. If you have fewer than three years, that’s fine, too.

3P Class starts this week. Get ready.

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